Athletic Club vs Vila Nova FC
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-06 · 01:30 CET
WDDLL
DWWWDThe score model made an Athletic Club win the most likely outcome at 39%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 5:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Athletic Club 1.25 – 1.13 Vila Nova FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletic Club win | 39.1% | 35.3% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.6% | 31.9% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Vila Nova FC win | 33.3% | 32.9% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.7% | 36.0% | +6.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 18.1% | +3.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 48.5% | 44.5% | +3.9% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.3% | 26.1% | +2.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Athletic Club 39.3 / Vila Nova FC 53.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.