Nautico vs Botafogo SP
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-09-05 · 01:00 CET
DLWDL
LDWLWThe score model made a Nautico win the most likely outcome at 52%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Nautico 1.46 – 0.83 Botafogo SP.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nautico win | 52.0% | 48.1% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 26.7% | 28.8% | -2.2% | ✗ |
| Botafogo SP win | 21.3% | 23.1% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.9% | 43.9% | -4.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.7% | 24.1% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 49.1% | -6.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 53.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.5% | 30.1% | -10.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Nautico 23.1 / Botafogo SP 53.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.