Ceara vs Londrina
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-22 · 23:00 CET
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LLLLDThe score model makes a Ceara win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT over 1.5 goals — 36.2% vs 32.1% implied (+4.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ceara 1.63 – 1.05 Londrina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara win | 51.0% | 52.3% | -1.3% |
| Draw | 24.3% | 26.9% | -2.6% |
| Londrina win | 24.6% | 20.8% | +3.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 46.7% | +3.4% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.1% | 26.5% | +1.6% |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 49.3% | +2.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.2% | 32.1% | +4.1% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ceara 33.7 / Londrina 25.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.