Ceara vs Londrina
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-22 · 23:00 CET
LDWDW
WWLLLThe score model made a Ceara win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ceara 1.63 – 1.05 Londrina.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ceara win | 51.0% | 50.3% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.4% | 27.5% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Londrina win | 24.6% | 22.2% | +2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.1% | 46.2% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.1% | 26.3% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.1% | 49.7% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.1% | 31.9% | +4.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ceara 33.6 / Londrina 25.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.