Botafogo SP vs Criciuma
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-08-20 · 02:30 CET
LLLDW
WLLLWThe score model made a Criciuma win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 28%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Botafogo SP 0.83 – 1.03 Criciuma.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Botafogo SP win | 28.7% | 37.9% | -9.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.6% | 32.4% | -0.8% | ✓ |
| Criciuma win | 39.7% | 29.7% | +10.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 55.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 28.4% | 36.2% | -7.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11.8% | 18.5% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 35.9% | 44.8% | -8.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 52.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 18.8% | 25.8% | -7.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Botafogo SP 52.2 / Criciuma 43.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.