Rayo Majadahonda – Murcia

Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 16:45 UTC · full time 0-1 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

Show

At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.97	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.83	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.63	−7.2%
Betfair (net)	2.65	−6.4%
bet365	2.40	−15.3%

€62 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.91	3.07	2.88	2.65
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.13	3.11	3.00	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.97	2.83	2.65	2.40
Over/under 2.5 · Over	3.13	2.48	2.31	2.20
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.47	1.68	1.56	1.53
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	5.22	3.61	3.23	3.40
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.24	1.38	1.02	1.27
Both teams to score · No	1.67	1.97	1.86	1.68
Both teams to score · Yes	2.50	2.03	1.92	1.96

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.