Hercules – Sant Andreu

Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 16:15 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.35	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.96	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.74	−7.6%
Betfair (net)	3.14	+5.9%
bet365	3.00	+1.2%

€51 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

Venue	Opened	Lasted	Peak vs fair	€ at best price	Price taken	vs Pinnacle close	Result
Betfair	-29 min	9 min	+6.1%	€110	3.14	+5.9%	lost
Betfair	-14 min	14 min	+5.9%	€88	3.09	+4.3%	lost

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365	Minutes above fair
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.92	4.79	4.04	3.70	0
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.35	2.96	3.14	3.00	23
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.24	2.20	2.08	1.87	0
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.76	2.32	2.23	2.04	0
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.57	1.76	1.69	1.69	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	5.91	3.51	3.23	3.00	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.20	1.40	1.37	1.33	0
Both teams to score · No	1.74	2.07	1.87	1.80	0
Both teams to score · Yes	2.35	1.93	1.93	1.80	0

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.