Antequera – FC Cartagena SAD

Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.75	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.72	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.39	−8.8%
Betfair (net)	3.80	+2.2%
bet365	3.80	+2.2%

€98 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

Venue	Opened	Lasted	Peak vs fair	€ at best price	Price taken	vs Pinnacle close	Result
Betfair	-5 min	4 min	+4.5%	€77	3.80	+2.3%	lost

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365	Minutes above fair
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.75	3.72	3.80	3.80	4
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.41	3.68	3.42	3.10	0
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.27	2.18	2.04	1.86	0
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.61	2.09	2.03	1.93	0
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.62	1.92	1.83	1.78	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.56	3.31	3.04	2.75	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.64	1.43	1.42	1.37	0
Both teams to score · No	1.80	2.13	2.03	1.86	0
Both teams to score · Yes	2.25	1.88	1.78	1.76	0

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.