Atl. Madrid B – Zaragoza

Primera RFEF - Group 2, Spain · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 19:00 UTC · full time 4-4 (HT 1-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

Show

At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.41	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.01	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.79	−7.3%
Betfair (net)	2.95	−2.1%
bet365	2.70	−10.3%

€62 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.96	2.63	2.39	2.20
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.06	3.48	3.42	3.25
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.41	3.01	2.95	2.70
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.69	1.90	1.86	1.86
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.45	2.11	2.01	1.86
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.72	3.37	3.14	3.00
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.58	1.42	1.40	1.33
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.20	2.75	2.63	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.45	1.57	1.52	1.37
Both teams to score · No	2.61	2.53	2.16	1.96
Both teams to score · Yes	1.62	1.65	1.68	1.68

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.