Pontevedra – Merida AD

Primera RFEF - Group 1, Spain · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · full time 1-2 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.92	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.37	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.23	−5.9%
Betfair (net)	2.27	−4.1%

€62 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.64	3.54	3.33	—
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.81	3.39	3.19	2.85
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.92	2.37	2.27	—
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.21	2.25	2.14	2.05
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.83	1.80	1.75	1.62
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.44	3.46	3.14	3.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.41	1.41	1.38	1.30

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.