Renate – Giana Erminio

Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 12:30 UTC · full time 2-2 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.16	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.20	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.99	−6.5%
Betfair (net)	3.14	−1.9%
bet365	3.20	+0.1%

€134 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.52	4.23	3.80	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.16	3.20	3.14	3.20
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.50	2.22	2.10	1.86
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.94	2.18	2.07	1.96
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.51	1.84	1.81	1.68
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	4.70	3.35	3.04	3.00
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.27	1.43	1.41	1.33
Both teams to score · No	1.72	2.16	2.01	1.79
Both teams to score · Yes	2.40	1.86	1.84	1.79

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.