Renate vs Giana Erminio
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-10-11 · 14:30 CET
DDLLD
LDDDDThe score model makes a Renate win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Renate 1.15 – 0.92 Giana Erminio.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Renate win | 40.0% | — | — |
| Draw | 31.6% | — | — |
| Giana Erminio win | 28.4% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.0% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.1% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.5% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 41.9% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.4% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Renate 49.1 / Giana Erminio 46.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.