Lecco – Alcione Milano

Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 15:30 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.94	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.49	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.24	−7.2%
Betfair (net)	3.38	−3.4%
bet365	3.10	−11.2%

€3 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.54	4.30	4.04	3.90
Full time 1X2 · Draw	2.94	3.49	3.38	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.65	2.08	1.99	1.81
Over/under 2.5 · Over	3.61	2.09	2.03	1.98
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.38	1.92	1.84	1.73
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	4.85	3.24	3.00	3.00
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.26	1.45	1.41	1.33
Both teams to score · No	1.57	2.13	2.01	1.79
Both teams to score · Yes	2.75	1.88	1.83	1.79

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.