Lecco vs Alcione Milano
Serie C - Group A, Italy · 2026-10-11 · 17:30 CET
WWDLD
WDLDDThe score model makes a Lecco win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 28%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lecco 1.00 – 0.83 Alcione Milano.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lecco win | 37.6% | — | — |
| Draw | 34.0% | — | — |
| Alcione Milano win | 28.4% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 55.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27.7% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11.4% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 36.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.8% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 20.6% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lecco 43.5 / Alcione Milano 41.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.