Al Raed – Jeddah

Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-10-14 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	5.89	ref
Pinnacle fair	6.31	ruler
Pinnacle offered	5.59	−11.4%
Betfair (net)	5.94	−5.9%
bet365	5.25	−16.8%

€20 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	5.89	6.31	5.94	5.25
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.28	4.10	3.85	3.90
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.68	1.67	1.66	1.45
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.81	1.96	1.88	1.82
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.24	2.04	1.97	1.92
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.48	3.04	2.79	—
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.68	1.49	1.48	—
Both teams to score · No	2.15	1.97	1.93	—
Both teams to score · Yes	1.87	2.03	1.89	—

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.