USM Alger – Saoura

Ligue 1, Algeria · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 19:15 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.17	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.46	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.42	−2.7%
Betfair (net)	1.44	−1.3%
bet365	1.37	−5.9%

€408 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.20	10.58	9.55	8.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.33	4.58	4.23	3.60
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.17	1.46	1.44	1.37
Over/under 2.5 · Over	3.02	2.52	2.37	2.20
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.50	1.66	1.62	1.53
Both teams to score · No	1.64	1.59	1.50	1.41
Both teams to score · Yes	2.55	2.69	2.65	2.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.