USM Alger vs Saoura
Ligue 1, Algeria · 2026-10-13 · 21:00 CET
DDWWL
DWLDDThe score model makes a USM Alger win the most likely outcome at 46%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 33%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: USM Alger 1.24 – 0.80 Saoura.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| USM Alger win | 46.1% | — | — |
| Draw | 30.1% | — | — |
| Saoura win | 23.8% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.4% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.0% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 39.4% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.9% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: USM Alger 39.2 / Saoura 37.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.