Pyramids – Ceramica Cleopatra

Premier League, Egypt · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 4-1 (HT 3-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

Show

At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.98	ref
Pinnacle fair	7.52	ruler
Pinnacle offered	6.76	−10.1%
Betfair (net)	7.46	−0.8%
bet365	6.50	−13.5%

€35 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.98	7.52	7.46	6.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.48	4.01	3.85	3.25
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.96	1.62	1.55	1.46
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.21	2.34	2.19	2.05
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.83	1.75	1.71	1.62
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.17	4.54	4.13	3.40
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.31	1.28	1.27	1.27
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.50	3.47	3.19	3.00
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.40	1.41	1.39	1.33
Both teams to score · No	1.97	1.75	1.70	1.57
Both teams to score · Yes	2.03	2.34	2.22	2.15

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.