Pyramids vs Ceramica Cleopatra
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-10-12 · 19:00 CET
WWWWW
LWWWWThe score model makes a Pyramids win the most likely outcome at 51%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 45%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 76.0% vs 69.7% implied (+6.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pyramids 1.58 – 0.91 Ceramica Cleopatra.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pyramids win | 51.3% | 59.7% | -8.4% |
| Draw | 28.6% | 24.3% | +4.3% |
| Ceramica Cleopatra win | 20.1% | 16.0% | +4.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.3% | 50.4% | -5.1% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.0% | 30.3% | -6.3% |
| Both teams to score | 49.1% | 49.3% | -0.2% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.6% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 28.7% | 34.5% | -5.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pyramids 34.3 / Ceramica Cleopatra 33.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.