Smouha – Ghazl El Mahallah

Premier League, Egypt · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.64	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.47	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.38	−3.8%
Betfair (net)	2.46	−0.4%
bet365	2.57	+3.9%

€227 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.12	5.28	4.71	3.70
Full time 1X2 · Draw	2.64	2.47	2.46	2.57
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.65	2.46	2.31	2.10
Over/under 2.5 · Over	4.31	4.46	3.96	3.50
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.30	1.29	1.29	1.25
Both teams to score · No	1.49	1.52	1.48	1.37
Both teams to score · Yes	3.03	2.92	2.73	2.70

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.