Smouha vs Ghazl El Mahallah
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-10-12 · 19:00 CET
DLLWW
LDLLLThe score model made a draw the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 23%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Smouha 0.95 – 0.71 Ghazl El Mahallah.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smouha win | 37.8% | 40.0% | -2.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 37.9% | 35.5% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Ghazl El Mahallah win | 24.3% | 24.4% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 51.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 23.2% | 26.4% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8.7% | 12.1% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 33.0% | 34.8% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.3% | 19.2% | +4.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Smouha 33.5 / Ghazl El Mahallah 32.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.