Arab Contractors – ZED

Premier League, Egypt · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 14:00 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.61	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.69	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.59	−3.8%
Betfair (net)	2.63	−2.2%
bet365	2.30	−14.6%

€14 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.61	2.69	2.63	2.30
Full time 1X2 · Draw	2.94	2.81	2.67	2.65
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.61	3.66	3.42	3.10
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.96	3.18	3.00	2.75
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.51	1.46	1.42	1.37
Over/under 3.5 · Over	6.55	7.42	6.32	5.00
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.18	1.16	1.14	1.11
Both teams to score · No	1.75	1.73	1.69	1.53
Both teams to score · Yes	2.34	2.37	2.23	2.20

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.