Arab Contractors vs ZED
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-10-12 · 16:00 CET
LWDWD
LWLWDThe score model made a ZED win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Arab Contractors 0.92 – 1.13 ZED.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arab Contractors win | 27.7% | 29.5% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 34.0% | 34.0% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| ZED win | 38.3% | 36.6% | +1.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.8% | 33.7% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.3% | 17.0% | -1.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.8% | 42.7% | +0.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 58.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 24.6% | 23.8% | +0.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Arab Contractors 33.3 / ZED 35.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.