Zamalek – Al Ahly

Premier League, Egypt · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 0-2 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.70	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.03	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.97	−3.1%
Betfair (net)	1.97	−3.1%
bet365	1.81	−10.9%

€145 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.70	2.03	1.97	1.81
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.19	3.21	3.04	2.85
Full time 1X2 · Home	3.17	5.10	4.89	4.33
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.34	2.45	2.40	2.15
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.75	1.69	1.63	1.57
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.57	4.75	4.61	3.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.28	1.27	1.25	1.22
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.39	3.80	3.52	3.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.42	1.36	1.33	1.30
Both teams to score · No	2.01	1.92	1.83	1.68
Both teams to score · Yes	1.99	2.08	2.03	1.96

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.