Zamalek vs Al Ahly
Premier League, Egypt · 2026-10-11 · 19:00 CET
WWWWL
WWDWWThe score model made an Al Ahly win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zamalek 1.14 – 1.25 Al Ahly.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zamalek win | 31.6% | 25.0% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.4% | 30.1% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Al Ahly win | 37.1% | 44.9% | -7.9% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42.7% | 43.9% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 21.9% | 24.2% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.3% | 50.1% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 30.3% | -0.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zamalek 34 / Al Ahly 34.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.