Stuttgart II – Hoffenheim II

3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 3-2 (HT 2-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.50	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.94	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.80	−4.9%
Betfair (net)	2.90	−1.5%
bet365	2.65	−10.0%

€70 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365	Minutes above fair
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.69	2.31	2.14	2.05	0
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.41	4.41	4.23	3.60	0
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.50	2.94	2.90	2.65	0
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.42	1.40	1.39	1.33	0
Over/under 2.5 · Under	3.40	3.48	3.23	3.10	0
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.02	2.00	1.95	1.83	0
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.98	2.00	1.93	1.88	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	1.95	2.09	1.99	1.93	0
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	2.05	1.92	1.88	1.78	0
Both teams to score · No	3.43	3.59	3.04	3.25	0
Both teams to score · Yes	1.41	1.39	1.42	1.30	3

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.