Stuttgart II vs Hoffenheim II
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-13 · 19:00 CET
LDDWW
DWWLLThe score model made a Stuttgart II win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 3:2 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Stuttgart II 1.86 – 1.79 Hoffenheim II.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stuttgart II win | 40.1% | 32.1% | +8.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.7% | 24.0% | -1.4% | ✗ |
| Hoffenheim II win | 37.2% | 43.9% | -6.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70.6% | 68.6% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 49.5% | 49.2% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 70.8% | 68.9% | +2.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 82.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 51.3% | 47.8% | +3.4% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Stuttgart II 41 / Hoffenheim II 29.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.