Mannheim – Ingolstadt

3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-14 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 0-3 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.08	ref
Pinnacle fair	4.27	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.96	−7.2%
Betfair (net)	4.13	−3.1%
bet365	3.80	−11.0%

€10 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.80	4.28	3.94	3.70
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.08	4.27	4.13	3.80
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.52	1.88	1.82	1.68
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.61	1.52	1.51	1.41
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.63	2.90	2.67	2.70
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.52	2.31	2.22	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.66	1.76	1.69	1.62
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.40	2.29	2.16	1.96
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.72	1.77	1.73	1.68
Both teams to score · No	2.80	2.96	2.60	2.57
Both teams to score · Yes	1.56	1.51	1.53	1.41

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.