Mannheim vs Ingolstadt
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-14 · 19:00 CET
WLWWL
WLLLWThe score model made a Mannheim win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 62%). It finished 0:3 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Mannheim 1.65 – 1.55 Ingolstadt.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mannheim win | 39.7% | 47.2% | -7.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 24.5% | 24.4% | +0.1% | ✗ |
| Ingolstadt win | 35.8% | 28.4% | +7.3% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 62.0% | 64.1% | -2.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.8% | 43.9% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 64.2% | 65.3% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.7% | 43.9% | -2.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Mannheim 48.6 / Ingolstadt 48.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.