Wehen – Alemannia Aachen

3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-14 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 3-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.50	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.37	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.19	−5.4%
Betfair (net)	3.23	−4.1%
bet365	2.75	−18.4%

€242 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.50	3.37	3.23	2.75
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.91	3.68	3.52	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.90	2.32	2.20	2.10
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.75	1.72	1.68	1.57
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.34	2.39	2.28	2.15
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.87	2.79	2.69	2.62
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.54	1.56	1.51	1.41
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.63	2.60	2.44	2.32
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.61	1.63	1.59	1.49
Both teams to score · No	2.54	2.76	2.48	2.32
Both teams to score · Yes	1.65	1.57	1.57	1.49

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.