Wehen vs Alemannia Aachen
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-14 · 19:00 CET
DLWLW
WDLWLThe score model made an Alemannia Aachen win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wehen 1.43 – 1.55 Alemannia Aachen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wehen win | 34.5% | 39.7% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 26.2% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Alemannia Aachen win | 40.0% | 34.1% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.3% | 57.3% | -0.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.9% | 36.5% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.6% | 60.8% | -0.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.0% | 38.8% | -0.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wehen 43 / Alemannia Aachen 40.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.