Verl – Regensburg

3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-14 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 2-2 (HT 0-2) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.91	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.61	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.50	−4.1%
Betfair (net)	2.46	−5.6%
bet365	2.30	−11.8%

€5 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	4.03	2.79	2.69	2.35
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.39	3.87	3.75	3.60
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.91	2.61	2.46	2.30
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.56	1.44	1.42	1.33
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.79	3.29	3.11	3.10
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.38	2.07	1.98	1.88
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.73	1.94	1.90	1.83
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.52	2.13	1.99	1.96
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.66	1.88	1.83	1.76
Both teams to score · No	2.76	3.68	3.19	3.25
Both teams to score · Yes	1.57	1.37	1.40	1.30

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.