Verl vs Regensburg
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-14 · 19:00 CET
WWDWD
LDLDWThe score model made a Verl win the most likely outcome at 52%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 64%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Verl 1.99 – 1.32 Regensburg.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verl win | 52.4% | 41.9% | +10.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.8% | 23.9% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Regensburg win | 24.8% | 34.1% | -9.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.2% | 68.4% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.1% | 48.9% | -6.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 63.7% | 68.9% | -5.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.7% | 46.8% | -7.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Verl 48.6 / Regensburg 35.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.