Ingolstadt – Wehen

3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 11:30 UTC · full time 2-4 (HT 0-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

Show

At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	4.02	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.69	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.48	−5.6%
Betfair (net)	3.47	−5.9%
bet365	3.30	−10.5%

€135 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.69	2.98	2.86	2.62
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.02	3.69	3.47	3.30
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.08	2.54	2.44	2.25
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.75	1.77	1.71	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.33	2.30	2.20	2.05
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.89	2.94	2.79	2.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.53	1.52	1.48	1.37
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.56	2.82	2.60	2.45
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.64	1.55	1.52	1.46
Both teams to score · No	2.45	2.62	2.44	2.20
Both teams to score · Yes	1.69	1.62	1.60	1.53

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.