Ingolstadt vs Wehen
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-10 · 14:00 CET
WLWLL
DDLWLThe score model makes an Ingolstadt win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 57%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 65.3% vs 59.9% implied (+5.3 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ingolstadt 1.73 – 1.24 Wehen.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ingolstadt win | 48.3% | 47.3% | +1.0% |
| Draw | 24.8% | 25.6% | -0.9% |
| Wehen win | 27.0% | 27.1% | -0.1% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.3% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.1% | 60.2% | -3.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.7% | 40.1% | -5.3% |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 61.7% | -2.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.7% | 40.1% | -1.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ingolstadt 48.4 / Wehen 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.