Alemannia Aachen – Viktoria Koln

3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 14:30 UTC · full time 2-5 (HT 1-4) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.97	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.69	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.48	−5.8%
Betfair (net)	3.56	−3.5%
bet365	3.40	−7.9%

€1 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.59	3.27	3.00	2.70
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.97	3.69	3.56	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.13	2.36	2.33	2.10
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.78	1.59	1.56	1.50
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.28	2.70	2.52	2.40
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.96	2.42	2.37	2.20
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.51	1.71	1.62	1.53
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.67	2.40	2.25	2.05
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.60	1.71	1.66	1.62
Both teams to score · No	2.42	3.10	2.65	2.57
Both teams to score · Yes	1.70	1.48	1.50	1.41

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.