Alemannia Aachen vs Viktoria Koln
3. Liga, Germany · 2026-10-11 · 16:30 CET
LWDLW
WLWWWThe score model makes an Alemannia Aachen win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 66.3% vs 57.5% implied (+8.8 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Alemannia Aachen 1.68 – 1.25 Viktoria Koln.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alemannia Aachen win | 47.1% | 44.4% | +2.7% |
| Draw | 25.1% | 24.6% | +0.6% |
| Viktoria Koln win | 27.8% | 31.1% | -3.3% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.6% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.1% | 62.9% | -6.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.7% | 42.5% | -8.8% |
| Both teams to score | 58.6% | 64.2% | -5.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.2% | 42.9% | -5.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Alemannia Aachen 40.5 / Viktoria Koln 48.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.