Gwangju FC – Ulsan HD

K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 05:00 UTC · full time 4-3 (HT 2-2) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.90	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.68	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.65	−2.0%
Betfair (net)	1.63	−3.0%
bet365	1.57	−6.4%

€1063 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	1.90	1.68	1.63	1.57
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.00	4.59	4.23	4.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	4.48	5.37	5.08	4.33
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.79	1.62	1.60	1.49
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.26	2.62	2.44	2.32
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.00	2.62	2.53	1.49
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.50	1.62	1.57	2.32
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.74	2.54	2.42	2.20
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.57	1.65	1.61	1.53
Both teams to score · No	2.32	2.48	2.29	2.15
Both teams to score · Yes	1.76	1.67	1.68	1.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.