Gwangju FC vs Ulsan HD
K League 1, South-Korea · 2026-10-11 · 07:00 CET
DLDDW
DWWLLThe score model made an Ulsan HD win the most likely outcome at 53%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 4:3 (HT 2:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Gwangju FC 1.11 – 1.80 Ulsan HD.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gwangju FC win | 22.3% | 20.6% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.0% | 23.2% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Ulsan HD win | 52.7% | 56.2% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55.8% | 59.1% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33.4% | 38.1% | -4.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 57.0% | 58.1% | -1.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.4% | 40.2% | -3.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Gwangju FC 48.2 / Ulsan HD 48.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.