Novorizontino – Ponte Preta

Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 22:00 UTC · full time 5-1 (HT 3-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	1.18	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.08	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.07	−0.9%
Betfair (net)	1.09	+0.7%
bet365	1.06	−1.6%

€6657 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	24.39	41.96	36.15	26.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	9.07	20.73	13.82	10.00
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.18	1.08	1.09	1.06
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.65	1.35	1.36	1.25
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.54	3.83	3.33	3.60
Over/under 3.5 · Over	2.61	1.96	1.93	1.83
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.62	2.04	1.93	1.88
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.06	1.97	1.88	1.78
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.94	2.03	2.01	1.93
Both teams to score · No	1.49	1.46	1.48	1.41
Both teams to score · Yes	3.03	3.16	2.82	2.57

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.