Novorizontino vs Ponte Preta
Serie B Superbet, Brazil · 2026-10-14 · 00:00 CET
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LLLLDThe score model made a Novorizontino win the most likely outcome at 85%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 5:1 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Novorizontino 2.70 – 0.44 Ponte Preta.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novorizontino win | 84.9% | 89.0% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 11.0% | 7.7% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Ponte Preta win | 4.1% | 3.3% | +0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60.7% | 73.3% | -12.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 38.3% | 53.8% | -15.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 33.0% | 36.4% | -3.4% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 78.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 48.5% | 51.2% | -2.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Novorizontino 56.9 / Ponte Preta 40.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.