Bragantino – Cruzeiro

Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-13 · kickoff 00:00 UTC · full time 4-2 (HT 3-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Draw

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	3.40	ref
Pinnacle fair	3.79	ruler
Pinnacle offered	3.67	−3.3%
Betfair (net)	3.66	−3.6%
bet365	3.50	−7.8%

€45 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Draw

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	2.96	3.25	3.04	3.10
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.40	3.79	3.66	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.72	2.33	2.25	2.20
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.46	1.72	1.67	1.62
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.69	2.39	2.33	2.15
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.92	2.90	2.69	2.45
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.25	1.53	1.51	1.49
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.43	2.65	2.44	2.32
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.41	1.61	1.61	1.49
Both teams to score · No	1.90	2.63	2.48	2.32
Both teams to score · Yes	2.11	1.61	1.58	1.49

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.