Bragantino vs Cruzeiro
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-13 · 02:00 CET
LDLLD
LWLWWThe score model made a Bragantino win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 4:2 (HT 3:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Bragantino 1.19 – 1.13 Cruzeiro.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bragantino win | 36.8% | 44.9% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.4% | 26.2% | +3.2% | ✗ |
| Cruzeiro win | 33.8% | 29.0% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.7% | 57.5% | -16.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.3% | 36.2% | -15.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 47.5% | 60.3% | -12.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.1% | 39.2% | -10.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Bragantino 52.9 / Cruzeiro 52.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.