Palmeiras – Corinthians

Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 20:30 UTC · full time 4-1 (HT 2-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

Show

At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	8.26	ref
Pinnacle fair	7.27	ruler
Pinnacle offered	6.82	−6.2%
Betfair (net)	6.89	−5.2%
bet365	7.00	−3.7%

€13 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	8.26	7.27	6.89	7.00
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.38	3.88	3.75	3.50
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.54	1.66	1.61	1.56
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.26	2.54	2.42	2.32
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.79	1.65	1.61	1.53
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.33	5.04	4.71	3.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.30	1.25	1.24	1.25
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	2.72	3.79	3.52	3.50
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.58	1.36	1.34	1.25
Both teams to score · No	1.66	1.67	1.65	1.49
Both teams to score · Yes	2.51	2.49	2.35	2.32

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.