Palmeiras vs Corinthians
Serie A Betano, Brazil · 2026-10-11 · 22:30 CET
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LLLLLThe score model made a Palmeiras win the most likely outcome at 65%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 4:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Palmeiras 1.81 – 0.64 Corinthians.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palmeiras win | 65.0% | 57.7% | +7.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.8% | 25.6% | -2.8% | ✗ |
| Corinthians win | 12.1% | 16.6% | -4.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.2% | 45.7% | -1.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.1% | 25.7% | -2.6% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 39.9% | 46.6% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 36.8% | 31.5% | +5.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Palmeiras 53 / Corinthians 52.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.