Ludogorets – Arda

Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 5-0 (HT 3-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Away

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	6.80	ref
Pinnacle fair	8.79	ruler
Pinnacle offered	7.62	−13.3%
Betfair (net)	8.98	+2.2%
bet365	8.50	−3.3%

€36 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Away

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	6.80	8.79	8.98	8.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.26	4.80	4.51	4.20
Full time 1X2 · Home	1.62	1.48	1.43	1.39
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.26	2.02	1.89	1.78
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.79	1.98	1.98	1.93
Over/under 3.5 · Over	4.33	3.79	3.28	3.25
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.30	1.36	1.37	1.30
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.08	3.18	2.79	2.70
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.48	1.46	1.48	1.37
Both teams to score · No	1.73	1.80	1.78	1.68
Both teams to score · Yes	2.38	2.25	2.06	1.96

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.