Ludogorets vs Arda
Parva liga, Bulgaria · 2026-10-12 · 19:00 CET
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WLLDLThe score model made a Ludogorets win the most likely outcome at 62%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 5:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Ludogorets 1.73 – 0.71 Arda.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ludogorets win | 61.8% | 63.1% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.5% | 22.9% | +0.6% | ✗ |
| Arda win | 14.7% | 14.0% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.2% | 50.8% | -6.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.1% | 29.9% | -6.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 42.0% | 47.7% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 67.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.4% | 34.6% | -2.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Ludogorets 43.4 / Arda 44 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.