Benfica B – Felgueiras

Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-10-12 · kickoff 17:00 UTC · full time 1-0 (HT 1-0) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.41	ref
Pinnacle fair	2.81	ruler
Pinnacle offered	2.70	−4.0%
Betfair (net)	2.75	−2.3%
bet365	2.50	−11.1%

€79 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.21	2.80	2.69	2.50
Full time 1X2 · Draw	3.65	3.48	3.23	3.25
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.41	2.81	2.75	2.50
Over/under 2.5 · Over	2.53	2.21	2.07	1.96
Over/under 2.5 · Under	1.65	1.82	1.83	1.68
Over/under 3.5 · Over	5.15	4.29	3.79	3.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.24	1.30	1.31	1.22
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.82	3.42	3.09	3.00
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.35	1.41	1.40	1.33
Both teams to score · No	1.82	2.11	2.04	1.86
Both teams to score · Yes	2.22	1.90	1.82	1.76

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.