Benfica B vs Felgueiras
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-10-12 · 19:00 CET
WDLLW
DDWLLThe score model makes a Benfica B win the most likely outcome at 42%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 80.5% vs 72.2% implied (+8.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Benfica B 1.25 – 1.02 Felgueiras.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica B win | 41.8% | 43.8% | -1.9% |
| Draw | 27.3% | 28.7% | -1.4% |
| Felgueiras win | 30.8% | 27.5% | +3.4% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 39.6% | 46.2% | -6.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.5% | 27.8% | -8.4% |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | 51.3% | -6.1% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.2% | 32.0% | -5.8% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Benfica B 43.6 / Felgueiras 36.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.