Lusitania FC – Chaves

Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-10-11 · kickoff 10:00 UTC · full time 1-1 (HT 0-1) · match page

DC (results-only model)Pinnacle fairBetfair netbet365 (reference)gap

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At kickoff · Home

Line	Price	vs fair
DC (results-only)	2.21	ref
Pinnacle fair	1.96	ruler
Pinnacle offered	1.87	−4.4%
Betfair (net)	1.85	−5.1%
bet365	1.81	−7.4%

€284 at Betfair’s best back price at kickoff.

Betfair commission

The blue line is the yardstick. Orange above blue means Betfair, after commission, paid more than Pinnacle’s no-margin price at that minute. bet365 (green) is shown for reference only: its feed can lag for long stretches near kickoff, so it never counts as a gap. The grey dashed line is FC’s Dixon–Coles model, fixed before kickoff. It sees past results only — no lineups, injuries or news — so it can sit far from the market: a reference, not a signal. The guide →

Gaps · Full time 1X2 · Home

rule: ≥3% above fair for ≥3 min, price 2 min after opening, Betfair at 5%

No gap met the rule for this outcome.

Every market at kickoff

Market · outcome	DC (results-only)	Pinnacle fair	Betfair net (5%)	bet365
Full time 1X2 · Away	3.24	4.75	4.33	3.70
Full time 1X2 · Draw	4.18	3.60	3.42	3.40
Full time 1X2 · Home	2.21	1.96	1.85	1.81
Over/under 2.5 · Over	1.89	2.10	2.10	1.96
Over/under 2.5 · Under	2.12	1.91	1.79	1.76
Over/under 3.5 · Over	3.27	3.98	3.66	3.75
Over/under 3.5 · Under	1.44	1.34	1.29	1.22
Half time over/under 1.5 · Over	3.27	3.10	2.90	2.75
Half time over/under 1.5 · Under	1.44	1.48	1.41	1.37
Both teams to score · No	2.24	2.10	1.94	1.79
Both teams to score · Yes	1.80	1.91	1.81	1.79

Measurement, not tips: nothing here recommends a bet. Prices via OddsPapi. 18+. Gambling can harm — BeGambleAware, GamCare.