Lusitania FC vs Chaves
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-10-11 · 12:00 CET
WDWWW
LDLWLThe score model makes a Lusitania FC win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Over 2.5 goals — 53.0% vs 43.5% implied (+9.6 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lusitania FC 1.57 – 1.23 Chaves.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lusitania FC win | 45.6% | 36.3% | +9.3% |
| Draw | 24.0% | 31.4% | -7.4% |
| Chaves win | 30.5% | 32.3% | -1.8% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.0% | 43.5% | +9.6% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.8% | 25.3% | +5.5% |
| Both teams to score | 55.6% | 50.5% | +5.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.5% | 30.2% | +0.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lusitania FC 26 / Chaves 36.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.